Monday, May 01, 2006

[EVSIN] Analyst Review

Author: Naphtalia
Date of Review: May 01, 2006
Corp: [EVSIN] Everyshore Investments
Fund Manager: De Mont
EMFi Rating: Strong Buy
EMFi Trades: (Bid 69,000 isk // Ask 125,000 isk)
EMFi 10 week target: 115,000 isk

Mission
Everyshore Investments seeks to maximise income for its shareholders through the trading of minerals and NPC goods across the Everyshore region.
The corporation specialises in exploiting inter-regional arbitrage oportunities and uses courier outsourcing to effectively manage logistics.

Corporation
The corporation is basically a Closed-End Trading Company (CETC) that plays the mineral and NPC markets in Everyshore region. They pay out dividends based on their Capital Gain (difference in Net Assets Value) and buy back any shares at 95% NAV.

They have operated for 8 weeks using a small investment pool (50Mio) after they went public and are operating since 5 weeks with a significantly larger investment pool of (220Mio)

Dilligence and Compliance
The corporation has been producing detailed statements for the last 13weeks and have paid out more dividends then the nominal face value of the shares. Corporation is very communicative and publishes clear readable records.

Investor Value
The Company has shown a very healthy dividend averaging around 17.5% of nominal value, they had some trouble retaining their profitability since 3 weeks ago but their latest published numbers are very impressive again and hit their average dividend.

figure 1: Dividend per week based on nominal value




The original investors really hit the jackpot with this stockpick, if an investor invested 10,000 isk in shares in week 0 and sells to the buy-back scheme of this share in week 13 the graph below shows his investment result. As you can see the investor would have more then trippled his isk over the last 13 weeks.

Figure 2: Investment result from week 1, using the buy-back scheme




There has been very limited volume in this stock it seems that all investors are keen to hold on to their shares, to get a more realistic view on ROI you have to calculate the virtual value of the stock based on dividends. The following graph shows the fluctuation of the virtual stock value and the monthly dividend percentages based on the virtual stock value. As you can see, if you use a ROI of 8% monthly this stocks virtual price has been fluctuating between 115,000 isk and 135,000 isk in the last few weeks. That is a over 11x the nominal value of this share.

Figure 3: Virtual Stock value and relative dividend percentage


Finally the graph below shows the investment result based on the virtual stock price (the price someone should be able to sell the shares for now:

Risks & Investment:
This stock is virtually riskless, however becuase it is a CETC, the fundmanager is perfectly in his right to liquidate the corp assets and spread them over the shareholders. The fundmanager doesn't make any claim that his shares are worth more then 105% of NAV. Even though this share is a perfect investment, even at 100k isk when this fund would get liquidated within a year you will lose isk. The fund has shown history for 13weeks and it is likely it will sustain comparable profitability over the next 13 weeks as well. Because of this I set a ROI target of 13weeks which would make the stock value @ 69,000 isk (break even after 13 weeks with simmilar performance and liquidation or buy-back in 13 weeks time)

3 Comments:

Anonymous Ferrosa said...

Very nice and informative report! I will link this to the EGSE website.

May 02, 2006 9:17 am  
Anonymous Aaro'ne Erviale said...

Impressive report on a solid investment! Would you be interested in writing reports on other corporations??

May 02, 2006 10:08 am  
Blogger EMFi Manager said...

Yes, contact Naphtalia in game, so many corporations and investments though

May 02, 2006 10:12 am  

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